Why uncertainty deserves a spotlight
Uncertainty is inherent in safety-critical industries; no data set is ever complete, and Presight openly accepts and highlights this reality. By clearly showing gaps, limitations and variability in the data, the platform lets decision-makers judge how confidently the model can be trusted before they act. That transparency turns uncertainty from a hidden liability into a controlled design factor.
There are many ways of thinking of “uncertainty”, and we have split them into; •Known–Known : What we know it, and we measure it
The Unknown might split into the following:
•Known–Unknown : We know, but we are not measuring it for some reason
•Unknown–Unknown : We are unaware of it
•Unknown–Known : We are unaware of it, but someone knows
1. Known–Unknowns
We know a barrier exists, but we lack the data to prove its health, paper logbooks, siloed spreadsheets or vendor reports stuck in email.
Consequences:
- False confidence in performance
- Regulatory drag from missing records
- Inefficient spend chasing the wrong issues
“Scio me nescire” Socates – I know that I know nothing
These signals are marked as blue in Presight to flag, we know there is a barrier but we do not know enough about the data to give it a signal.
2. Unknown–Unknowns
These are the barriers and threats we haven’t even thought of yet. Until they surface, Presight uses typical “robustness” to express uncertainty:
| Barrier type | Typical robustness | Uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
| Passive hardware | Very high | ≈ A % |
| Proactive hardware | Medium-high | ≈ B% |
| Reactive hardware | Medium | ≈ C % |
| Active human | Medium-low | ≈ D% |
When a function shows up grey in Presight, it flags a significant knowledge gap that needs attention.
3. Bringing the unknowns into view
Presight specialises in software for Barrier Management, an umbrella tool that aggregates and visualises organisational, operational, and technical barriers from multiple sources.
The platform:
- Shows the “known knowns” with hard data.
- Highlights limited information (blue) so teams can prioritise data capture.
- Marks high-uncertainty zones (grey) to prompt deeper analysis.
Beyond a simple green-yellow-red status, Presight applies dynamic weighting:
- Human-factor heavy barriers can be given more weight because people add variability.
- External shifts say, a geopolitical event—can raise the weight of affected barriers instantly.
Picture of combined aggregation and visualisation
Uncertainty is inevitable
Uncertainty is inevitable; ignoring it is optional.
By exposing both known–unknowns and unknown–unknowns, Presight turns blind spots into clear targets for action helping you make safer, faster and more dependable decisions every day.
